The Forecast
Three years on Level 1 · November 2026 to October 2029 · three cases
This is what the first $300K does. Every number comes from our month-by-month model, built from our current offers and today's pace: how many Adventures and cohort seats Zachary and the guides can carry, who stays on as a member, and what every salary, guide payment, profit share and tax reserve costs. It assumes no capital beyond Level 1. We forecast three years because that's as far as a forecast can honestly see; the long view, with Levels 2 and 3 opening as we hit our marks, is our growth plan, and it lives in the Whole Story.
$492KRevenue, year one
$1.40MRevenue, year three
332People through the journey
$39KRepaid by month 36 of $525K
Year one, month by month
| Nov 26 | Dec 26 | Jan 27 | Feb 27 | Mar 27 | Apr 27 | May 27 | Jun 27 | Jul 27 | Aug 27 | Sep 27 | Oct 27 | Year 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| People | |||||||||||||
| Adventures with Zachary | 1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 2 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 28 |
| Kinship Quest seats | – | – | 14 | – | – | – | 14 | – | – | – | 15 | – | 43 |
| Members | – | – | – | 0.5 | 1.2 | 2 | 9.9 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 21 | 22 | 22 |
| Enterprise engagements | – | – | – | 1 | – | – | – | – | – | 1 | – | – | 2 |
| Revenue | |||||||||||||
| Adventures with Zachary | $8K | $11K | $13K | $16K | $18K | $19K | $21K | $22K | $24K | $24K | $24K | $24K | $224K |
| Kinship Quest seats | – | $32K | $32K | – | – | $33K | $33K | – | – | $33K | $33K | – | $196K |
| Membership | – | – | – | $162 | $374 | $634 | $3K | $3K | $4K | $4K | $7K | $7K | $29K |
| Enterprise | – | – | – | $21K | – | – | – | – | – | $21K | – | – | $42K |
| Total revenue | $8K | $43K | $45K | $37K | $18K | $53K | $57K | $26K | $28K | $83K | $64K | $31K | $492K |
| Results | |||||||||||||
| Total costs | $27K | $45K | $53K | $59K | $60K | $57K | $59K | $56K | $57K | $71K | $56K | $52K | $651K |
| Net income | −$19K | −$3K | −$7K | −$22K | −$42K | −$4K | −$2K | −$30K | −$29K | $12K | $8K | −$21K | −$159K |
| Bank at month end | −$19K | $279K | $271K | $249K | $208K | $203K | $201K | $171K | $142K | $153K | $162K | $141K | $141K |
Three years
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Three years | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| People | ||||
| Adventures with Zachary | 28 | 36 | 36 | 100 |
| Guide-led journeys | – | 32 | 58 | 90 |
| Kinship Quest seats | 43 | 47 | 52 | 142 |
| Members | 22 | 59 | 101 | 101 |
| Guides | – | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| Enterprise engagements | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| App members | – | 194 | 482 | 482 |
| Revenue | ||||
| Adventures with Zachary | $224K | $288K | $288K | $800K |
| Guide-led journeys | – | $192K | $348K | $540K |
| Kinship Quest seats | $196K | $216K | $235K | $648K |
| Membership | $29K | $156K | $315K | $500K |
| Enterprise | $42K | $90K | $90K | $222K |
| The app | – | $24K | $127K | $150K |
| Total revenue | $492K | $966K | $1.40M | $2.86M |
| Results | ||||
| Total costs | $651K | $898K | $1.19M | $2.74M |
| Net income | −$159K | $68K | $158K | $67K |
| Bank at month end | $141K | $209K | $328K | $328K |
| The Mission Note | ||||
| Paid to Level 1 investors | – | – | $39K | $39K |
| Repaid to date | – | – | $39K | $39K |
Slower growth means slower payments and a higher multiple. By month 36 investors have received $39K; if the trend holds, Level 1 is fully repaid around month 66, about 5.3 years in, at 1.75× ($525K in total).
$894KRevenue, year one
$2.77MRevenue, year three
529People through the journey
$377KRepaid by month 36 of $420K
Year one, month by month
| Nov 26 | Dec 26 | Jan 27 | Feb 27 | Mar 27 | Apr 27 | May 27 | Jun 27 | Jul 27 | Aug 27 | Sep 27 | Oct 27 | Year 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| People | |||||||||||||
| Adventures with Zachary | 1 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 3 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 44 |
| Guide-led journeys | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| Kinship Quest seats | – | – | 20 | – | – | – | 21 | – | – | – | 22 | – | 63 |
| Members | – | – | – | 0.7 | 1.8 | 3.4 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 43 | 45 | 45 |
| Guides | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Enterprise engagements | – | – | – | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | – | 1 | – | – | 3 |
| Revenue | |||||||||||||
| Adventures with Zachary | $10K | $17K | $23K | $30K | $34K | $38K | $42K | $46K | $50K | $50K | $50K | $50K | $440K |
| Guide-led journeys | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | $12K | $12K | $12K | $36K |
| Kinship Quest seats | – | $47K | $47K | – | – | $49K | $49K | – | – | $52K | $52K | – | $296K |
| Membership | – | – | – | $227 | $600 | $1K | $6K | $7K | $8K | $8K | $14K | $15K | $59K |
| Enterprise | – | – | – | $21K | – | – | $21K | – | – | $21K | – | – | $63K |
| Total revenue | $10K | $64K | $70K | $51K | $35K | $88K | $118K | $53K | $58K | $143K | $128K | $77K | $894K |
| Results | |||||||||||||
| Total costs | $27K | $51K | $61K | $77K | $79K | $80K | $93K | $81K | $84K | $105K | $105K | $98K | $942K |
| Net income | −$17K | $13K | $7K | −$26K | −$45K | $7K | $25K | −$28K | −$26K | $38K | $23K | −$22K | −$50K |
| Bank at month end | −$17K | $296K | $303K | $277K | $233K | $240K | $265K | $237K | $210K | $248K | $271K | $250K | $250K |
Three years
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Three years | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| People | ||||
| Adventures with Zachary | 44 | 60 | 60 | 164 |
| Guide-led journeys | 6 | 46 | 92 | 144 |
| Kinship Quest seats | 63 | 73 | 84 | 221 |
| Members | 45 | 133 | 226 | 226 |
| Guides | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| Enterprise engagements | 3 | 6 | 6 | 15 |
| App members | – | 633 | 1,204 | 1,204 |
| Revenue | ||||
| Adventures with Zachary | $440K | $600K | $600K | $1.64M |
| Guide-led journeys | $36K | $276K | $552K | $864K |
| Kinship Quest seats | $296K | $342K | $398K | $1.04M |
| Membership | $59K | $355K | $700K | $1.12M |
| Enterprise | $63K | $180K | $180K | $423K |
| The app | – | $128K | $339K | $467K |
| Total revenue | $894K | $1.88M | $2.77M | $5.54M |
| Results | ||||
| Total costs | $942K | $1.46M | $1.76M | $4.17M |
| Net income | −$50K | $258K | $564K | $772K |
| Bank at month end | $250K | $413K | $695K | $695K |
| The Mission Note | ||||
| Paid to Level 1 investors | – | $95K | $282K | $377K |
| Repaid to date | – | $95K | $377K | $377K |
Slower growth means slower payments and a higher multiple. By month 36 investors have received $377K; if the trend holds, Level 1 is fully repaid around month 38, about 3.0 years in, at 1.40× ($420K in total).
$1.36MRevenue, year one
$4.50MRevenue, year three
767People through the journey
month 29Level 1 fully repaid · 1.35×
Year one, month by month
| Nov 26 | Dec 26 | Jan 27 | Feb 27 | Mar 27 | Apr 27 | May 27 | Jun 27 | Jul 27 | Aug 27 | Sep 27 | Oct 27 | Year 1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| People | |||||||||||||
| Adventures with Zachary | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 6.6 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 66 |
| Guide-led journeys | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| Kinship Quest seats | – | – | 30 | – | – | – | 30 | – | – | – | 34 | – | 94 |
| Members | – | – | – | 1.7 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 37 | 40 | 44 | 48 | 78 | 83 | 83 |
| Guides | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| Enterprise engagements | – | – | – | 1 | – | 1 | – | 1 | – | 1 | – | 1 | 5 |
| App members | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 120 | 120 |
| Revenue | |||||||||||||
| Adventures with Zachary | $20K | $30K | $40K | $50K | $54K | $58K | $62K | $66K | $70K | $70K | $70K | $70K | $660K |
| Guide-led journeys | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | $12K | $12K | $12K | $24K | $60K |
| Kinship Quest seats | – | $68K | $68K | – | – | $68K | $68K | – | – | $75K | $75K | – | $421K |
| Membership | – | – | – | $552 | $1K | $2K | $12K | $13K | $14K | $16K | $25K | $27K | $112K |
| Enterprise | – | – | – | $21K | – | $21K | – | $21K | – | $21K | – | $21K | $105K |
| The app | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | $4K | $4K |
| Total revenue | $20K | $98K | $108K | $72K | $55K | $149K | $142K | $100K | $96K | $194K | $183K | $146K | $1.36M |
| Results | |||||||||||||
| Total costs | $34K | $63K | $84K | $91K | $93K | $106K | $116K | $119K | $119K | $138K | $125K | $130K | $1.22M |
| Net income | −$14K | $26K | $13K | −$20K | −$38K | $43K | $21K | −$19K | −$22K | $50K | $32K | $9K | $80K |
| Bank at month end | −$14K | $312K | $325K | $305K | $267K | $309K | $330K | $311K | $289K | $339K | $371K | $380K | $380K |
Three years
| Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Three years | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| People | ||||
| Adventures with Zachary | 66 | 84 | 84 | 234 |
| Guide-led journeys | 10 | 54 | 126 | 190 |
| Kinship Quest seats | 94 | 114 | 135 | 343 |
| Members | 83 | 230 | 394 | 394 |
| Guides | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| Enterprise engagements | 5 | 12 | 12 | 29 |
| App members | 120 | 1,362 | 2,508 | 2,508 |
| Revenue | ||||
| Adventures with Zachary | $660K | $840K | $840K | $2.34M |
| Guide-led journeys | $60K | $324K | $756K | $1.14M |
| Kinship Quest seats | $421K | $509K | $609K | $1.54M |
| Membership | $112K | $626K | $1.22M | $1.96M |
| Enterprise | $105K | $360K | $360K | $825K |
| The app | $4K | $294K | $712K | $1.01M |
| Total revenue | $1.36M | $2.95M | $4.50M | $8.81M |
| Results | ||||
| Total costs | $1.22M | $1.91M | $2.39M | $5.51M |
| Net income | $80K | $587K | $1.18M | $1.85M |
| Bank at month end | $380K | $755K | $1.74M | $1.74M |
| The Mission Note | ||||
| Paid to Level 1 investors | – | $212K | $193K | $405K |
| Repaid to date | – | $212K | $405K | $405K |
Level 1 is fully repaid in month 29, about 2.2 years in, at 1.35×: about 18% a year.
How it's built
- We start from today: about $10K a month, one Adventure a month. Only offers we sell now are in the model: Kinship Quest cohorts, Adventures, enterprise work, Kinship membership, and the Origin app once it's built.
- Kinship Quest runs three cohorts a year, in January, May and September: 14, 20 or 30 paid seats by case, about a third at $7,000 guided and the rest at $3,500 (the model prices guided seats at $6,500, so these figures run slightly conservative), growing a few percent each cohort. Half of each cohort is paid the month before it starts.
- I take Adventures from one a month now to three, five or seven by month 9, at $8,000 or $10,000. Guides trained from our graduates arrive from mid to late 2027 and each leads two journeys a month at $6,000, keeping 30%.
- Enterprise work starts at $21,000 in year one and $30,000 after. 50% to 85% of graduates join Kinship membership at about $325 a month. The app launches between October 2027 and April 2028 at $30 a month.
- Costs carry the full team from day one, two more rounds of hires as revenue passes $60K and $100K a month, raises that follow revenue, 15% contingency, delivery costs by offer, and the $65K tech build. My pay is a $4K base, $6K from month 13, replaced by 40% of the Adventures I deliver once that's larger. 20% of profit goes to the team's profit share and 30% of the rest to a tax reserve.
- The Mission Note is repaid from free cash flow after an 18-month build, once the business is profitable overall and keeps $50K in the bank: 40% of it, 50% once revenue passes $100K a month, at a multiple that rises from 1.2× to 2.5× the longer repayment takes.
The full model, with every assumption you can change, is a live spreadsheet; ask us for it. You can also download all 36 months of every case (.csv).